Sporetrust / Financial Model

Conservative medium-case economics

Executive Financial View

The medium-term case is built around a 15-field-rep operating base, conservative downstream attachment rates, and annual monitoring as the recurring revenue layer. The model should be underwritten on diagnostic contribution plus monitoring, with downstream revenue modelled separately until proven and compliant.

Diagnostics / Year19,80015 reps x 6 jobs/day x 220 days

Year-5 Revenue$37.6mDiagnostics + downstream + monitoring

Contribution Before Opex$27.6m-$32.0mCAC high-low sensitivity

Booked CAC$75-$300$15-$30 lead cost / 10%-20% sale conversion

Planning decision

Use the 15-rep case as the operating model. Additional hiring should follow measured utilisation, booked CAC, report quality, and renewal conversion.

Strategic Business Model Advantages

No remediation or builder works. Own the customer journey and peace of mind without taking delivery conflict or construction liability.
Offshore sample testing. Move testing and report workflow offshore with comparable lab-report SLA to reduce COGS per test.
Non-visible demand. Sell to mould-anxious customers without visible remediation demand, expanding beyond emergency works and obvious damage.
Recurring peace of mind. Treat monitoring as a repeat prevention purchase, comparable to termite checks, rather than a one-off inspection.
Sporecyte AI in house. Bring the Sporecyte offshore-testing AI model in house to reduce repeat COGS to $20 labour plus $5 consumables.

Customer Timeline: Revenue And COGS

The model monetises one customer across seven moments: acquisition, diagnostic, optional evidence, annual monitoring, downstream pathway, clearance/prevention, and renewal. CAC is the largest variable cost; in-house AI only appears where it reduces repeat-service COGS.

Step 01

Paid lead converts to bookingCustomer enters through problem-aware search, social, referral, or property-risk content.

Revenue opportunityNo customer revenue until booked diagnostic; required volume is 99,000-198,000 leads for 19,800 sales.

Cost / COGS$15-$30 lead cost; 10%-20% lead-to-sale conversion; $75-$300 booked CAC.

Revenue $0 pre-sale COGS/CAC $75-$300 booked CAC Gross margin N/A until sale

Step 02

Initial diagnostic visitField rep completes moisture mapping, thermal review, visual inspection, sampling decision, and report inputs.

Revenue opportunity$995 diagnostic revenue; 19,800 annual diagnostics produce $19.7m revenue.

Cost / COGS$100 delivery COGS plus $75-$300 CAC; contribution is $595-$820 per diagnostic.

Revenue $995 COGS $100 delivery + $75-$300 CAC Gross margin $895 / 90% before CAC Contribution $595-$820 after CAC

Step 03

Optional evidence add-onCustomer needs extra sample depth, lab confidence, or claim/dispute evidence.

Revenue opportunityExtra sample at $120/event; planning attach 17.5%.

Cost / COGSApprox. $40/event COGS; annual contribution about $0.28m.

Revenue $120/event COGS ~$40/event Gross margin ~$80 / 67%

Step 04

Report handoff and monitoring offerThe first report creates the property baseline and the customer is offered annual onsite monitoring.

Revenue opportunity$695 annual monitoring; planning conversion 30%; 5,940 new subscribers/year.

Cost / COGS$100 Year-1 monitoring COGS, falling to $25 repeat COGS with in-house workflow and AI-assisted analysis.

Revenue $695/year COGS $100 Y1, $25 repeat Gross margin $595-$670 / 86%-96%

Step 05

Remediation or builder pathwayIf works are required, the customer needs vetted remediation, repair, or trade handoff.

Revenue opportunityRemediation referral $350/event at 17.5% attach; builder referral $250/event at 10% attach.

Cost / COGSAssumed 95% margin implies about $17.50 remediation COGS and $12.50 builder COGS per event; compliance gate required.

Revenue $350 / $250 event COGS ~$17.50 / ~$12.50 Gross margin ~95%

Step 06

Clearance, prevention, productsAfter works or low-risk findings, customer may need verification, prevention clean, or products.

Revenue opportunityClearance $550 at 12.5% attach; prevention clean $650 at 10%; products $180 at 15%.

Cost / COGSClearance COGS about $100/event; prevention and products use 60% COGS, or $390 and $108 per event.

Clearance diagnostics Revenue $550 COGS ~$100 Gross margin ~$450 / 82%

Prevention clean Revenue $650 COGS ~$390 Gross margin ~$260 / 40%

Products Revenue $180 COGS ~$108 Gross margin ~$72 / 40%

Step 07

Annual renewalSubscriber receives annual onsite check, comparison against baseline, and report history.

Revenue opportunityYear-5 active equivalents: 18,122; monitoring revenue: $12.6m at 30% conversion and 25% churn.

Cost / COGSRepeat COGS target is $25/active subscription; Year-5 monitoring contribution is $12.1m.

Revenue $12.6m Y5 COGS $0.45m Y5 Gross margin $12.1m / 96%

Operating Base

Driver	Planning Case	Decision
Field reps	15	Enough capacity for a meaningful medium-case model without overbuilding field labour.
Jobs per rep per day	6	Quality, routing density, and 48-hour report delivery must remain intact at this cadence.
Working days	220	Annual production basis for field-rep capacity.
Annual diagnostics	19,800	15 reps x 6 jobs/day x 220 working days.

Diagnostic Unit Economics

Price$995Initial diagnostic

Delivery COGS$100Lab/sample/report allocation

Lead Cost$15-$30Paid lead cost range

Lead-To-Sale10%-20%Initial diagnostic conversion range

CAC Case	Lead Cost	Lead-To-Sale Conversion	Leads Required	Booked CAC	Annual Acquisition Spend	Contribution / Diagnostic	Annual Diagnostic Contribution
Low cost	$15	20%	99,000	$75	$1.5m	$820	$16.2m
Midpoint	$22.50	15%	132,000	$150	$3.0m	$745	$14.8m
High cost	$30	10%	198,000	$300	$5.9m	$595	$11.8m

Layer	Volume	Revenue / Unit	CAC Range / Unit	Contribution / Unit Range	Annual Revenue	Annual Contribution Range
Initial diagnostic	19,800	$995	$75-$300	$595-$820	$19.7m	$11.8m-$16.2m

Downstream Revenue - Planning Case

Downstream revenue is modelled with conservative planning attach rates. The current case assumes $268 of blended downstream revenue per diagnostic and roughly $189 of blended downstream contribution per diagnostic. At 19,800 diagnostics, this produces about $5.3m revenue and $3.7m contribution.

Revenue Stream	Planning Attach	Revenue / Event	Revenue / Diagnostic	Contribution / Diagnostic	Annual Contribution
Extra sample	17.5%	$120	$21.00	$14.00	$0.28m
Remediation referral	17.5%	$350	$61.25	$58.00	$1.15m
Builder referral	10.0%	$250	$25.00	$23.75	$0.47m
Clearance / recheck	12.5%	$550	$68.75	$56.25	$1.11m
Prevention clean	10.0%	$650	$65.00	$26.00	$0.51m
Products	15.0%	$180	$27.00	$10.80	$0.21m
Total downstream	Planning rates		$268.00	~$189.00	$3.7m

Referral revenue should remain excluded from any committed base case until independence claims, customer disclosure, consent, and partner controls are documented.

Annual Monitoring Layer

The recurring layer is the strategic financial engine. The planning case uses 30% conversion from diagnostic customers, $695 annual plan revenue, 25% churn, and COGS falling from $100 to $25 once in-house workflow and AI-assisted analysis reduce repeat-service cost.

New Subscribers / Year5,94019,800 diagnostics x 30%

Year-5 Active Equivalents18,12225% annual churn assumption

Year	Active Subscription Equivalents	Subscription Revenue	COGS Rate	Subscription COGS	Subscription Contribution
Year 1	5,940	$4.1m	$100	$0.59m	$3.5m
Year 2	10,395	$7.2m	$25	$0.26m	$7.0m
Year 3	13,736	$9.5m	$25	$0.34m	$9.2m
Year 4	16,242	$11.3m	$25	$0.41m	$10.9m
Year 5	18,122	$12.6m	$25	$0.45m	$12.1m

In-House AI as COGS Reduction

In-house AI is treated as an operating margin lever, not the product thesis. The financial use case is lower repeat-service COGS through faster analysis, report drafting, sample triage, and QA support. Demand, trust, and recurring monitoring must stand on their own before any technology premium is assumed.

COGS Lever	Before In-House AI	Target After In-House AI	Per Active Subscriber Saving	Year-5 Contribution Uplift
Annual monitoring repeat COGS	$100 / active subscription	$25 / active subscription	$75	~$1.4m

Year-5 uplift uses 18,122 active subscription equivalents x $75 saving. Target repeat COGS is $20 labour plus $5 consumables, not a validated AI revenue line.

Year-5 P&L Shape

Revenue Layer	Year-5 Revenue	Year-5 Contribution Before Fixed Opex	Planning Status
Initial diagnostics	$19.7m	$11.8m-$16.2m	Primary acquisition and contribution layer; CAC is the largest variable cost.
Downstream take-rate stack	$5.3m	$3.7m	Planning rates; subject to compliance gate.
Annual monitoring	$12.6m	$12.1m	30% conversion, 25% churn, $25 repeat COGS.
Total before fixed opex	$37.6m	$27.6m-$32.0m	CAC high-low sensitivity.

Fixed Opex Scenario	Assumption	Opex / Revenue	Estimated EBITDA	Use
Small central team	$0.75m	2.0%	$26.9m-$31.3m	Founder-led ops, accounting/admin, software, insurance, Stripe/tooling, and 2-3 customer service/admin seats; fulfilment stays in COGS.
Scaled small team	$1.13m	3.0%	$26.5m-$30.9m	4-5 customer service/admin seats, scheduling escalation, accounting, core software, insurance, and light QA oversight.
Small-team ceiling	$1.50m	4.0%	$26.1m-$30.5m	6-7 support, ops, QA, and admin seats with higher insurance, accounting, software, and management buffer.

LTV Per Acquired Diagnostic Customer

Component	Revenue / Customer	Contribution / Customer	Model Treatment
Initial diagnostic	$995	$595-$820	Includes booked CAC range of $75-$300.
Downstream planning case	$268	~$189	Conservative downstream planning case.
Annual monitoring at 30% conversion	~$636	~$591	Five-year blended value per diagnostic customer.
Total five-year value	~$1,899	~$1,375-$1,600	~4.6x-21.3x contribution-to-CAC across the $75-$300 booked CAC range.

Multiple Framing

Recurring Revenue

Annual monitoring converts a one-off diagnostic into repeat peace-of-mind revenue, giving the business a stronger multiple narrative than project-only services.

AI Tech Advantage

In-house Sporecyte AI reduces repeat testing COGS to $20 labour plus $5 consumables, increasing monitoring gross margin while keeping the core offer service-led.

Property Data Advantage

Each inspection builds a longitudinal property record: baseline report, renewal history, clearance outcomes, prevention activity, and comparable risk data.

Proof Gates Before Scale

CAC: lead cost between $15 and $30, lead-to-sale conversion between 10% and 20%, and booked diagnostic CAC between $75 and $300 across problem-aware channels.
Conversion: at least 30% of diagnostic customers take annual monitoring or pay a deposit for renewal monitoring.
COGS: diagnostic COGS held near $100-$150 and monitoring repeat COGS proven near $25-$100.
Utilisation: hire only when trailing lead volume supports at least 4 booked jobs per field rep per day without degrading report quality.
Compliance: no referral-fee reliance until independence, disclosure, consent, partner vetting, and liability controls are documented.
Opex: keep fixed opex at 2%-4% of revenue, or about $0.75m-$1.50m at the Year-5 revenue case, unless customer-service load, insurance, QA, or management span proves otherwise.